If 2020 taught me anything, it’s that contingencies matter…
I thought I was already pretty good at adding contingencies to plans. It wasn’t just that I’d plan for alternate outcomes, it’s that I always tried to add a little buffer to various plans in case unexpected things popped up. It has served me well throughout 2020.
Contingency Manual #1: When things get unpredictable, get creative.
Climbing Mt. Kilimanjaro in 2017, a scenario arose where we needed to take advantage of the built-in contingencies to the plan. To play the game at the top we needed a number of stars to align: enough players fit at 5700 metres to play 90 minutes of football; enough referees (turns out referees are REALLY important to an official game of football); and a full-size pitch — including goals. I’m into astronomy but I also wanted to make sure we did everything possible to direct those orbits.
Seven days out from our scheduled game at the crater, our football goals were stuck in customs at the airport in Arusha and it looked like we were going to have to improvise. With 4 days to go, we had the luxury of time to prepare a plan involving tent poles and tent sheeting to create full-size football goals. Luckily, two days before we were due to summit, we heard word that the goals were on their way up the mountain via a short cut to join us.
Contingency Manual #2: Take active steps to maximise your success in unpredictable situations.
We also knew we could have taken a faster route up the mountain but then we would only have had a 65% probability of the whole group making the crater. The particular route we chose gave us a 90% probability of the entire group making it. As much as we planned on probabilities, we didn’t know. No one had ever done this.
In the event, 97% of our team were able to participate and we had additional players and referees for the game in case of altitude sickness. We had taken a longer route and had a contingency of players in order to make sure we achieved our goal.
contingency
/kənˈtɪndʒ(ə)nsi/
noun
a future event or circumstance which is possible but cannot be predicted with certainty.
With contingency planning, it’s not just about planning for variations in the planning, it’s about planning for things that will come up that you have no idea would have. It’s really hard to predict with any certainty that this or that particular outcome would occur. Therefore, you have to think in terms of contingency buffers. Space that enables you to reformulate plans and come up with alternate solutions.
Contingency Manual #3: Unplanned time is your ally.
Time is one of the greatest assets of the contingency aficionados. I’ve learnt the hard way to value contingency time buffers. As someone who is always on the go, it’s sometimes difficult to dedicate time to “the unknown”, as opposed to a fixed goal. But I’ve found that trying to cram too much into your day/ week/ year can only lead to a frustration at always trying to squeeze things in.
You can get lucky but when everything breaks, it has a cascading effect on the rest of the dominoes you have so carefully prepared. We have become expert planners with our Gantt charts, Kanbans and budgets and forecast plans but we lack the foresight to put a big box in our plans that says “don’t know — for future weird stuff that pops up”.
Contingency Manual #4: Dedicated time and resource buffers can help a rapid recovery from system shocks.
Our expectations are raised by the quantum of work we can complete in a given day or week. We fine-tune our processes to become leaner and more “just-in-time” than ever before. But when something major arises, it can throw entire systems out the window. Take the 2008 financial crisis as an example of stacked dominoes falling…
2020 has really made me step up my contingency craft. In the year of the curve ball, I was able to work with our team to pivot our business approach as fast we could. Who else would launch the first product from their sports brand just before a pandemic shuts down global sport? Well, luckily we have been able to thrive in the interim and use the time to focus on growing different aspects of the business.
My business contingencies come in the form of dedicated time for thinking on Fridays, and pre-booking long lunch breaks that can be shortened in the case of the unexpected. My young son has also been instrumental in hammering home the point that unforeseen things happen (I’m sure I’ll write about ruthless prioritisation soon), and has helped to habit-form contingency buffers into my regular days. It has also helped me to get creative with problem-solving and find new ways to achieve the same goals.
In 2021, I’m going to continue my quest to requisition time from my day-to-day schedule to deal with unanticipated events. I, for one, will be building in more thinking time, more “who knows what’s going to happen here” time and more buffers for the unexpected. If you don’t need that contingency, then huzzah, bonus time to spend doing what you want or bonus resources to use as you will.
Let me know how you’ll approach contingencies in 2021.
